Economic analysts anticipate a difficult year for public finances in 2016 before the oil market weakness.

According to a survey conducted by a group of economists the financial, the expectation of oil production in 2016 is of 2.3 million barrels per day and the export of Mexican mix price will be around the 49 dólares. "For 2016 the picture is complicated, in terms of public finance, Since we will see a shortage of oil revenues, even higher that we will observe in 2015, Although this year it is likely that coverage are exercised", said Luis Adrián Muñiz, Deputy Director of analysis of Vector "Casa de Bolsa".

Until August the price of Mexican mix averaged 49.83 dollars barrel, that represents a reduction of the 44 per cent over the price reached in 2014, of 87 weights with 55 cents. In the same way oil production platform is located on Frank descend, in 5 years has been reduced from 2.56 million barrels per day to 2.2 million for August this year. Muniz said that if the pace which descends the oil keeps, they would be leaving extract 290 thousand barrels per day or 105 millions of barrels of crude oil in the year with respect to 2010.

"On the side of public finances it is bad news, to the extent that we continue having low oil productions, We will have low exports of oil and low oil revenues". He said that lower oil revenues would mean having more spending cuts. "If the economic package comes with" 49 dollars and a production of oil from 2.2 million, with weak growth, under 3 percent next year, You can than the cuts to public spending that announced Treasury of 0.7 per cent of GDP should be higher, close to one per cent". FASTEST GROWING The consensus of analysts expects GDP growth to accelerate slightly in 2016 to be located in 2.8 por ciento. For the bulk of experts, This advance could be benefited from an improvement in the economy of the United States, Thus manufacturing exports to that country would rise.

Liam Carston, Capital Economics Economist, He noted that the economy will slightly improve the coming year, When Mexican exports begin to experience the benefits in competitiveness that provides a weak weight. Flavia Rodriguez,Director of Aregional, It was considered that the economy will keep growth low, based on manufacturing exports, Since is not expected the oil prices to recover and will have lower public spending.

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